ArtRank Historical Results
Analyzing the performance of the public ArtRank index from 2014-2016.
Performance Summary
The public ArtRank index from 2014 to 2016 identified 176 unique artists. Of these, 26 achieved outsized success, resulting in an inferred hit rate of approximately 15%. These successful investments realized gains over an average of 6.1 years, generating an average ROI multiple of 22.6x, with individual returns ranging from 3.8x to over 100x.
You can explore the original picks, preserved for transparency, via the Internet Archive.
Simulating Real-World Investment
A theoretical portfolio acquiring all 176 artists would have yielded a 3.4x ROI. However, real-world collecting involves selection and some degree of chance. We ran 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations to model more realistic outcomes.
Our analysis strongly suggests a minimum capital commitment of $500,000, diversified across at least five different artists to align with the statistical 15% hit rate. The most prudent advice remains: diversify your art holdings.
A Note on Returns & Tax Advantages
Our model conservatively assumes that all "misses" generate a flat 1x return (no loss). While some artworks may become illiquid, the US tax system provides a unique advantage by allowing tax offsets through artwork donations to public non-profits.
We view this as an optimal financialization mechanism for art investing. It creates a positive feedback loop: as more works enter non-selling institutional collections, the available supply for sale diminishes, which can drive greater demand for the artist's remaining work. This model is contributive, not extractive, to the art ecosystem. While artist royalties are a worthy goal, donation-based tax incentives offer a compelling and readily implementable alternative.
Estimate Savings with our Donation CalculatorIllustrative Historical Returns
| Artist | Source | Initial Price | Result | Time (Yrs) | ROI Multiple | CAGR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Mae Smith | Phillips HK | $15,000 | $1,591,512 | 6 | 106.10x | 117.58% |
| Nicolas Party | Phillips London | $30,000 | $3,168,750 | 7 | 105.62x | 94.59% |
| Julien Nguyen | Sotheby's London | $10,000 | $508,497 | 6 | 50.85x | 92.48% |
| Eddie Martinez | Sotheby's HK | $40,000 | $2,009,606 | 4 | 50.24x | 166.23% |
| Njideka Akunyili Crosby | Christie's NY | $100,000 | $4,740,000 | 6 | 47.40x | 90.24% |
| Jonas Wood | Christie's NY | $150,000 | $6,510,000 | 7 | 43.40x | 71.37% |
| Nina Chanel Abney | Christie's NY | $25,000 | $990,000 | 5 | 39.60x | 108.71% |
| Avery Singer | Sotheby's NY | $150,000 | $5,300,000 | 7 | 35.33x | 66.41% |
| Tschabalala Self | Phillips London | $20,000 | $567,715 | 4 | 28.39x | 130.82% |
| Genieve Figgis | Christie's Shanghai | $30,000 | $638,691 | 7 | 21.29x | 54.79% |
| Louise Bonnet | Sotheby's HK | $40,000 | $738,345 | 6 | 18.46x | 62.57% |
| Henry Taylor | Sotheby's NY | $150,000 | $2,480,000 | 7 | 16.53x | 49.30% |
| Jamian Juliano-Villani | Sotheby's HK | $30,000 | $405,783 | 7 | 13.53x | 45.08% |
| Sanya Kantarovsky | Phillips London | $45,000 | $537,338 | 6 | 11.94x | 51.18% |
| Harold Ancart | Sotheby's NY | $100,000 | $1,018,500 | 7 | 10.18x | 39.31% |
| Aliza Nisenbaum | Sotheby's | $10,000 | $100,800 | 6 | 10.08x | 46.97% |
| Katherine Bernhardt | Christie's HK | $40,000 | $401,298 | 8 | 10.03x | 33.41% |
| Helen Johnson | Menzies | $10,000 | $87,414 | 6 | 8.74x | 43.53% |
| Nathaniel Mary Quinn | Phillips London | $30,000 | $261,387 | 3 | 8.71x | 105.77% |
| Katharina Grosse | Ketterer Munich | $75,000 | $565,677 | 6 | 7.54x | 40.04% |
| Donna Huanca | Sotheby's | $15,000 | $82,829 | 6 | 5.52x | 32.95% |
| Ibrahim Mahama | Sotheby's London | $20,000 | $105,824 | 3 | 5.29x | 74.25% |
| Calvin Marcus | Phillips NY | $35,000 | $151,200 | 8 | 4.32x | 20.07% |
| Jennifer Guidi | Christie's NY | $150,000 | $625,000 | 5 | 4.17x | 33.03% |
| Carroll Dunham | Sotheby's NY | $200,000 | $762,000 | 10 | 3.81x | 14.31% |