ArtRank Historical Results
Analyzing the performance of the public ArtRank index from 2014-2016.
Performance Summary
From 2014–2016, the ArtRank Index identified 176 artists. Of these, 26 delivered breakout success—about a 15% hit rate. Among those winners, the average holding period was 6.1 years and the average return multiple was 22.6×, with individual outcomes ranging from 3.8× to 100×+.
You can explore the original picks, preserved for transparency, via the Internet Archive.
Simulating real‑world investment
A hypothetical “buy‑all” portfolio—acquiring all 176 artists—would have returned about 3.4×. Real‑world collecting involves selection and randomness, so we ran 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations to model more practical outcomes.
The modeling indicates a minimum capital commitment of ~$500,000, diversified across at least five artists, to reflect the cohort’s 15% hit rate. The core takeaway: diversify your art holdings.
Simulations are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only; past performance is not indicative of future results.
A Note on Returns & US Tax Treatment
For modeling, we assume non‑winners return 1.0× since illiquid artworks retain donation value. Under US law, donating artwork to a qualifying public charity may be eligible for a charitable deduction, subject to IRS requirements (e.g., holding period, qualified appraisal, related‑use rules, and AGI limits).
We see donation‑based strategies as an efficient financial mechanism: as more works move into non-selling institutional collections, circulating supply shrinks—supporting demand for the remaining market inventory. The aim is contributive, not extractive, to the art ecosystem. While we believe artist royalties would be a more inclusive solution to the financialization of the art market, donation‑based incentives are a practical, readily implementable alternative solution.
Use our calculator below to help visualize the donation option:
Estimate Savings with our Donation CalculatorIllustrative Historical Returns
| Artist | Source | Initial Price | Result | Time (Yrs) | ROI Multiple | CAGR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Mae Smith | Phillips HK | $15,000 | $1,591,512 | 6 | 106.10x | 117.58% |
| Nicolas Party | Phillips London | $30,000 | $3,168,750 | 7 | 105.62x | 94.59% |
| Julien Nguyen | Sotheby's London | $10,000 | $508,497 | 6 | 50.85x | 92.48% |
| Eddie Martinez | Sotheby's HK | $40,000 | $2,009,606 | 4 | 50.24x | 166.23% |
| Njideka Akunyili Crosby | Christie's NY | $100,000 | $4,740,000 | 6 | 47.40x | 90.24% |
| Jonas Wood | Christie's NY | $150,000 | $6,510,000 | 7 | 43.40x | 71.37% |
| Nina Chanel Abney | Christie's NY | $25,000 | $990,000 | 5 | 39.60x | 108.71% |
| Avery Singer | Sotheby's NY | $150,000 | $5,300,000 | 7 | 35.33x | 66.41% |
| Tschabalala Self | Phillips London | $20,000 | $567,715 | 4 | 28.39x | 130.82% |
| Genieve Figgis | Christie's Shanghai | $30,000 | $638,691 | 7 | 21.29x | 54.79% |
| Louise Bonnet | Sotheby's HK | $40,000 | $738,345 | 6 | 18.46x | 62.57% |
| Henry Taylor | Sotheby's NY | $150,000 | $2,480,000 | 7 | 16.53x | 49.30% |
| Jamian Juliano-Villani | Sotheby's HK | $30,000 | $405,783 | 7 | 13.53x | 45.08% |
| Sanya Kantarovsky | Phillips London | $45,000 | $537,338 | 6 | 11.94x | 51.18% |
| Harold Ancart | Sotheby's NY | $100,000 | $1,018,500 | 7 | 10.18x | 39.31% |
| Aliza Nisenbaum | Sotheby's | $10,000 | $100,800 | 6 | 10.08x | 46.97% |
| Katherine Bernhardt | Christie's HK | $40,000 | $401,298 | 8 | 10.03x | 33.41% |
| Helen Johnson | Menzies | $10,000 | $87,414 | 6 | 8.74x | 43.53% |
| Nathaniel Mary Quinn | Phillips London | $30,000 | $261,387 | 3 | 8.71x | 105.77% |
| Katharina Grosse | Ketterer Munich | $75,000 | $565,677 | 6 | 7.54x | 40.04% |
| Donna Huanca | Sotheby's | $15,000 | $82,829 | 6 | 5.52x | 32.95% |
| Ibrahim Mahama | Sotheby's London | $20,000 | $105,824 | 3 | 5.29x | 74.25% |
| Calvin Marcus | Phillips NY | $35,000 | $151,200 | 8 | 4.32x | 20.07% |
| Jennifer Guidi | Christie's NY | $150,000 | $625,000 | 5 | 4.17x | 33.03% |
| Carroll Dunham | Sotheby's NY | $200,000 | $762,000 | 10 | 3.81x | 14.31% |